In recent years, a significant number of conflicts have rapidly developed amid a deteriorating global geopolitical environment. The most recent and one of the most deadly has been the war in Gaza, now well into its seventh month. In the past month, the regional spillover has reached a fever pitch, and concerns have escalated about a regional or even global conflict. This article will discuss both the background leading up to recent events as well as potential ramifications.
After the October 7th, 2023 attack by Hamas in which hundreds of Israeli civilians were brutally murdered and many towns were ruthlessly razed in a single morning, a state of war began between Israel and Hamas (the ruling authority in the territory of Gaza), along with other Palestinian militant organizations operating in Gaza. Within days, a massive bombing campaign began as the Israeli Air Force bombarded the Gaza Strip to pave the way for a ground operation. Now, by April 2024, most of the Gaza Strip has seen Israeli military activity while both military and civilian casualties among Palestinians in the besieged territory have skyrocketed.
This background information may be familiar to most, if not all, given this conflict has deservedly received wall-to-wall media coverage. However, some of the underlying international alliances tend to remain absent in the public conscience- understandably so, given their complexities and slow-burning consequences. First and foremost, the Islamic Republic of Iran remains one of the most populous and powerful nations in the Middle East. Having thrown off the shackles of a brutal monarchy in 1979, tensions between the new hardcore Islamic fundamentalist regime and the rest of the region quickly escalated. Of note is the different religious orientation of Iran compared to much of the rest of the Middle East- Iran is majority Shia, while much of the Muslim community in the Arabian peninsula and the rest of the world remain Sunni. The exact differences in philosophy between the two main Islamic sects (not to mention the many smaller communities within these sects) are not necessarily the focus of this article. However, one important element of Shia religious thought remains the importance of designated Shia scholars. Given Iran’s role as the only officially Shia state containing a plurality of the Shia community worldwide, the nation’s Islamic scholars hold major sway over a variety of global Shia movements.
In many nations, especially with often-oppressed Shiite minorities, Shia militant groups have formed, including in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq. Seeing the opportunity presented by such militant groups’ influence, Iranian foreign policy-makers have long backed them, supplying weapons, advisors, and strategic guidance. While not necessarily under direct Iranian control, Iranian military figures often meet with these groups to organize a unified strategy. Additionally, Hamas (a Sunni group) has also been seen as Iran-backed, as Israel is Iran’s declared main rival in the region.
Beyond religious differences, much of the Middle East has long despised Iran for one specific reason. In forming the Islamic Republic, Iran eliminated the previous Pahlavi Dynasty, a long-standing monarchy. Echoing European fears after the French Revolution, the fact that a nation both successfully overthrew their monarch- and then explicitly promised to export their revolution abroad- has terrified the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula. Additionally, as countries such as Saudi Arabia maintain a large Shiite minority, these fears have at times converged into terror over the possibility of an anti-monarchy Shia revolution backed by Iran.
Over the years, the two sides have come to back different groups in the region, often on opposing sides in a variety of wars. The United States has long been at odds with Iran as well, given long-existing tensions among Iranians over the United States’ domineering influence in the region. This fear and hatred spilled over in the storming of the United States embassy by Iranian protesters during the 1979 revolution, permanently scarring relations since.
In the present day, Hamas has sought to involve Iran and Iranian-backed groups such as the powerful Lebanese group Hezbollah. The Houthis of Yemen have nominally intervened by attacking civilian shipping in the Red Sea- invoking an American and British military intervention in return. Since October 7th (and even before), Israel has launched airstrikes against Iranian-backed militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. On April 1st of this year, an Israeli airstrike demolished a building in the Iranian consulate in Syria. A large group of senior Iranian commanders-including multiple generals- meeting with and directing local militant groups were killed instantly, dealing a significant blow to Iran’s coordination with the forces they fund and back. This was especially significant given the status of the bombed building as a consulate- the Iranian ambassador to Syria was quite literally next door- and the attack could be seen as a direct attack on Iran. Furthermore, serious legal issues abound, as the attack may have violated international law by attacking the “accommodation of a diplomat”.
Of note, Israel is also on the verge of a major offensive into the final major city in Gaza that had not previously seen an Israeli ground campaign. While Gaza City and Khan Younis (the two other main cities in the Gaza Strip) both remain under nominal Israeli military control, an operation in Rafah has thus far been avoided, in part due to the over one million civilians living in precarious temporary shelters there. The fall of Rafah would mark a major defeat for Hamas as they would lose vital access to the Egyptian border, through which weapons and military supplies have previously been smuggled.
Thus, the consulate strike occurred at the same time as the war in Gaza had reached a critical turning point. This sparked fears of a massive Iranian retaliation marking their direct entry into the war, leading to potentially devastating regional conflagration.
On April 13th, Iran’s long-promised retaliation was launched. A barrage of drones was spotted after their launch, slowly moving across the desert towards Israel. However, these easy targets were annihilated over the skies of Jordan, as the Arab nation long seen as aligned against Iran allowed aircraft from the United States, France, and the United Kingdom to use their airspace to fend off the attack long before its arrival in Israel. A wave of deadly and highly dangerous ballistic missiles were launched, possibly meant to coincide with the arrival of the drone wave in an attempt to overwhelm potent Israeli air defenses. However, given the destruction of the Iranian drones well before the arrival of the missiles and due to Israel’s “David’s Sling” missile defense system, only a few missiles actually landed. All told, over 300 drones and missiles were launched, and a runway was slightly damaged (and immediately repaired), while a 7-year-old girl was injured by falling debris.
Israel vowed to retaliate, doing so on the 18th of April. Many had feared an Israeli response may target the Iranian nuclear program, which could have caused a massive regional or even global escalation. However, the Israeli response was limited and symbolic, returning the gesture by striking the home territory of their rival in return, but only by destroying a singular air defense system near an Iranian military base.
Some speculation remains. Namely, much confusion persists as to the original intentions of Iran, given they allegedly warned other Middle Eastern nations 72 hours in advance- information which would have certainly reached Israel and allowed them to prepare. Additionally, due to the extremely low casualties in Israel as a result of the strike, many have speculated Iran could not have possibly meant to cause real damage.
This perspective does not, however, take into account the level of knowledge held by the Iranian military about the strength of Israeli air defenses. Given at least one missile directly impacted a runway near a group of aircraft, it is highly likely these missiles were at least aimed to cause damage. We may never know if these missiles were launched with the knowledge that they would cause damage, however. Such information is likely highly classified or simply unquantifiable, lying only in the subconsciouses of a select few military commanders. One important fact to consider is that during a previous escalation in 2020, Iran was also rumored to have purposefully avoided damage, which was later proven false.
Regardless, for the time being, Iran and Israel have both engaged in de-escalatory rhetoric, indicating a lack of interest in continuing their brief conflict, at least at the level of this recent skirmish. However, the serious and deadly rivalry between Iran and Israel will remain, as Iran increases their nuclear capabilities and as Israel continues to fight Iranian-backed militants. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s theocratic and fundamentalist government has refused to recognize any Israeli state in the Middle East, and the Israeli government has responded by discarding any hopes of reconciliation. While this round of direct fighting might have quickly fizzled out, tensions are sure to increase in the future yet again given the seemingly insurmountable differences between Israel and Iran.
The opinions expressed within this piece represent the views of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Jefferson Independent.
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