In between his dates in court this weekend, former President Donald Trump hosted a private luncheon with top GOP donors and the handful of individuals most likely to be the Republican Party’s next nominee for Vice-President. The Trump-veepstakes have been underway for months now, but it seems Trumpworld has settled on one of the following seven individuals to serve as his number two: South Dakota Governor Kirsti Noem, Montana Governor Doug Burgum, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Representative Byron Donalds, and House GOP conference Chair Elise Stefanik. Each of these would-be candidates will bring with them their own draws and drawbacks, but this article will seek to weigh them against each other. To determine which of these professionals will serve as Trump’s next pain sponge we have to ask ourselves: What is Donald Trump even looking for in a Vice President?
Historically, Presidents have looked to balance out aspects of their campaign strategy with their Vice Presidential picks. Presidential candidates have sought this equilibrium through desirable geography, demography, ideology, and even age. Donald Trump however, especially in this post-Stop-the-Steal, 91-felony counts era, is anything but a prototypical presidential candidate. Back in 2016, Trump reportedly chose Mike Pence in an effort to sure-up The Republican Party’s base of evangelical Christians, who were unsure about supporting the well-noted philanderer and member of the New York City elite. It was a reasonable decision at the time, as Trump’s conservative credentials were relatively unproven, but in 2024, Donald Trump is The Republican Party. And with his base squarely in his corner, he likely won’t make this decision again with the same deciding factors.
Primarily, the former president is and has always been concerned with deferential loyalty first. In 2016, this loyalty was primarily a test of the elite class’s rhetorical sensibilities, but in 2024 there’s significantly more fine print to read in signing onto Team Trump. Loyalty to Trump now means being willing to accept two important aspects of Trumpism: that his 91-felony counts are all witchunts, and any prior (or future) Stop-The-Steal nonsense. A large percentage of The Republican Party’s base have already made these logical leaps, but outside of that bubble, these assumptions can be a difficult pill to swallow for many self-respecting political actors. Unfortunately, one of the seven aforementioned candidates will have to accept it if they want to be Trump’s VP. Other than loyalty, Trump’s team is also reportedly concerned with these candidates’ views on abortion, as well as their ability to widen Trump’s appeal to women and people of color.
With these established parameters, the remainder of this article will rank these seven prospective veeps, from least likely to most likely to be hand-picked by Trump.
- Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds is one of five Black Republicans in Congress and has built himself a platform as an ascendant MAGA star by staying as loyal as possible to the former President throughout the entire duration of his fledgling Florida political career. On the loyalty front, Donalds has already stated that he would be open to not certifying general election results if he were Vice President, and I think that this, combined with his general Trump-sycophancy, means he clears this bar. Unfortunately, he’s a relative unknown on the national stage, and lacks the political experience necessary to make choosing him make any solid political logic. Putting him up to national scrutiny this early in his political career, could kill it in its early stages.
- Kristi Noem
Kristi Noem is the first female Governor of reliably-red South Dakota, an experienced politician with MAGA bonafides, and would have ranked higher up until the recent publishing of her book, No Going Back. Noem first came to national prominence in 2020 for her resistance towards COVID containment strategies, and later for immediately buying into the Trump’s Stop-The-Steal chicanery. She’s loyal, and she’s a she, so where’s the problem? Primarily, abortion, where Noem falls far right of the average American’s view, being opposed to abortion exceptions for both rape and incest. Outside of these highly relevant political opinions, Noem would bring some baggage to the race, from the recent public revelation in her aforementioned book that she killed a 14-month-old puppy, to her allegedly “blatant” affair with Trump advisor turned castaway, Corey Lewandowski. I can’t believe I have to say this, but no one who publicly admits they kill dogs and then doubles down on their statement can win a nationally elected office in any country. May her dying veep candidacy fly high into the South Dakota skies much like Cricket did that fateful day.
- Doug Burgum
Doug Burgum is the mild-mannered self-made-billionaire governor of North Dakota. Similarly to Trump, he’s a wealthy political outsider, but unlike Trump, he’s unable to gain any kind of traction with the Republican base. In his run for the Republican nomination he spent more on campaign advertising than any other candidate, and dropped out while polling at 0.7%. This abysmal polling isn’t just reflective of Americans not knowing Burgum ( which they don’t), but it’s also reflective of how unremarkable Burgum is when we do see him. This lack of an established brand also means that Trumpworld can attempt to paint him as whatever they want, but whether this paint sticks is a shot in the dark.
Despite his public position that abortion should be left up to the states being in line with Trump’s current view, in his own state of North Dakota, he quietly signed legislation that bans abortion after six weeks, even in cases of rape or incest. If we do live in the most boring timeline, and Doug Burgum is the Republican’s Vice Presidential nominee, The Democratic Party will run more ads featuring that record than Doug did in his nothing-burger presidential campaign.
- Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik represents New York’s 21st District, serves as the fourth-ranking member in House GOP Leadership as House Republican Conference chair, is a talented fundraiser for her youthful age (39!) and an honest-to-god Trump convert! (So she’d have you, the former President, and the Republican base believe.) Stefanik was elected as a moderate conservative, and initially had public doubts about Trump’s effect on The Republican Party’s ability to broaden its tent, but since Trump’s first impeachment she’s turned over a new leaf as a MAGA Crusader. By the time 2020 rolled around, Stefanik voted against certifying Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, and recently said she wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election, which I’m sure Trump loves to hear. She also gained some press this year for her fiery questioning of three presidents of elite universities earned her much praise among Republicans. On abortion, Stefanik has endorsed a 15-week federal abortion ban, but in response to Trump’s “states’ rights” abortion positioning stated that the former president is “right that this issue will ultimately be decided by voters across America.” As a suburban woman who spent much of her early career attempting to make The Republican Party more inclusive, it’s possible Trump’s team could be convinced she could help them win back that demographic, but with her stringent stance on reproductive rights, I doubt they can confidently make that assumption. She’s very clearly smart, and could serve as a talented attack-dog if given a larger stage, which Trump likes, but I’m not sure Trumpworld (or anyone for that matter) buys her change of character.
- Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio is a young, experienced, and nationally-established Senator from Florida. He has experience on the national stage, running for president in 2016, and as a Latino American, fluent in Spanish, he could help Trump make inroads with the Hispanic community. Rubio also has significant foreign policy credentials, serving on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Furthermore, Rubio passes the “this-person-seems-like-they-could-be-the-next-President” smell test with flying colors.
But back in 2016, when the two men ran for president against each other things between the two got ugly (as they often do with Trump,) but not as ugly as with others in the GOP ( particularly referring to Trump insinuating Ted Cruz’s wife was unattractive, and that Cruz’s father was somehow involved with The JFK Assasination). Trump famously nicknamed Rubio “Little Marco” and traded several barbs back and forth with him. While campaigning against Trump, Rubio had referred to Trump as both an “embarrassment” and “dangerous to America” before kowtowing to him after the primary just like every Republican who wanted a future in The Party of Trump. However, this groveling can only go so far as Rubio was not one of the eight Republican Senators who voted against certifying the election results. I think this, despite his being early to endorse Trump for President in 2024, and his support for Trump’s monarchical “presidential immunity” claim might be enough to prevent him from reaching the #2 spot. Furthermore, Rubio loses even more points on abortion, as he co-sponsored Lindsey Graham’s legislation in support of a 15-week federal abortion ban, and has said prior to that he believed there shouldn’t be exceptions for rape or incest in regards to abortion. It wouldn’t be impossible for him to pivot closer to Trump’s stance, as many other potential veeps have, but it wouldn’t be a good look.
The second Florida Man to make an appearance on this list may end up having to find residence in a new state, due to the 12th amendment problem a Trump-Rubio ticket would face. The 12th amendment bars electoral college voters from casting ballots for a president and vice president from the same state, meaning Trump or Marco, would likely have to find a new state of residence before electors cast their votes in Mid-December. In response to this potential issue, Trump (of-course) reportedly said “Marco has this residency problem,” inferring Rubio would be the one to find a new home state. Could it work? Maybe, but I think the potential ensuing mess is what will close the book on Rubio’s vice presidential candidacy.
I also think Rubio’s political gravity as an established national candidate might be too much for Trump, who would never wants to be upstaged by his second-in-command.
- J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance is a former Marine, venture capitalist, the best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy (what some mainstream liberals viewed as a decoder to Trump’s appeal,) and Ohio senator for the past two years. Prior to receiving Trump’s endorsement during his 2021 Senate race, Vance had publicly called Trump “loathsome,” and described himself as a “Never Trump”-er ,but thanks in large part to his friendship with Donald Trump Jr., Vance was able to secure the president’s support. That endorsement, Vance’s opportune friendship with Trump the younger, and Vance’s subsequent pro-Trump Senate maneuvers, have now come together to blossom into a relationship in which Trump consults often with Vance. In convincing the former President to endorse Bernie Moreno in the Republican primary for Ohio’s other Senate seat, and Moreno’s subsequent landslide victory, Vance has become “the first person Trump calls to get advice on Ohio,” according to former Trump administration official Ric Grenell.
Vance has proven himself to be more than happy to lick Trump’s boots to atone for his prior mistakes, telling ABC News in February that had he been VP in 2021, he would’ve allowed Congress to consider Trump’s fake elector scheme. Like Congresswoman Stefanik, JD Vance too has been forced into a Trumpian makeover, but unlike Stefanik, I think Trump sees Vance as a more genuine ally. With the aid of his Trumpian halo, Vance has wasted no time building a budding national profile that’s drawing massive interest from large conservative donors. Ohio might not be a swing state anymore, but trying to appeal to “the forgotten America” was a central part of Trump’s winning strategy in 2016. Vance’s phoenix branding, coming from a once productive and now dilapidated steel town, will play extremely well with this base of Trump supporters, and still fit with Trump’s brand.
Vance is held back from the top spot due to his hardline stance on abortion, as well as his lack of any obvious ability to broaden Trump’s appeal with voters of color. In the recent past Vance has argued against the need for rape and incest exceptions in abortion laws, but has recently pivoted to being in favor of exceptions for rape and the health of the mother. This flip-flopping, unfortunately for Vance, will fit perfectly in The Democratic Party’s plan to convince the American people (rightfully, of course) that you can’t trust Republicans to protect reproductive rights. This kind of rhetoric scares suburban moderates away from the Republican Party, and if they want a chance of winning them back on this issue, Vance might not be the best choice. Even if Vance isn’t selected to serve as Vice President he likely has a bright future ahead of him in The Republican Party this time around.
- Tim Scott
As the only Black Republican in the Senate, I believe that South Carolina’s Tim Scott is Trump’s most likely pick to serve as his Vice President. It seems that Trump, with his backwards worldview and ideas about race, thinks that having a Black vice-president will guarantee him an increased slice of the Black vote. This commodification of Scott’s race will have its benefits in a MAGA Republican Party that frequently has to combat allegations of racism. The next time Trump says something racially insensitive, then will come the “Tim-Scott-clean-up-crew,” to confirm that “because I’m Black, ____ can’t be racist!” I don’t think this kind of approach will move a significant amount of Black Americans to vote for Trump, but I do think it can help convince White Suburban Moderates concerned about being labeled racist for voting for Republicans.
In Scott’s run for the GOP nomination last year, he polled consistently in the single digits and dropped out before voting even started, but still raised $46 Million for his campaign. Scott has the sort of non-threatening establishment touch that can calm suburban voters’ fears about a second Trump term and convince donors that their money is safe in his hands. This is a skill Trump needs, as he’ll likely be outfunded by President Joe Biden and has court-associated costs to pay. Whether or not these donors will still feel safe giving Scott their money after he inevitably embraces more kookier election denialism talking points is another matter, but I think he’s Trump’s best bet.
Scott has some hurdles to clear to prove his loyalty to Trump, as he voted to certify Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 and believes Pence did the right thing that day, but he’s doing his best to make up for those past mistakes. Following his exit from the presidential primary, in a symbolic blow to Gov. Nikki Haley, Scott endorsed Trump ahead of this year’s New Hampshire primary rather than Haley, who appointed him to his Senate seat in 2012. Last week on NBC News, when asked whether he would accept the 2024 election results, Scott dodged the question, simply repeating that: “I look forward to President Trump being the 47th president.”
As a candidate for President, Scott lobbied heavily for a 15-week federal abortion ban, but has since reevaluated his position to be more in line with the former president’s. He is now in favor of each state being allowed to make their own laws in regards to abortion, but the flip-flopping, as several other candidates on this list have done, is not a good look.
Scott is deeply religious, well-connected, well-liked in political circles, and in my opinion, would do the least amount of damage to Trump’s brand, while helping him in other significant areas.
Scott is not the most talented politician or zinger-specialist on this shortlist, but he has a unique set of skills that Trump can seek to use to his benefit in this political moment. I also think that Scott’s lack of a presidential presence is something Trump wants in a vice president, rather than someone who’ll spend every moment as Vice President positioning for the 2028 election.
Regardless of who Trump picks to be his vice-president, they will be forced to pretend to live in an alternate reality, where Trump actually won the 2020 Election, all his court cases are witchunts, and that he isn’t bad for democracy. We will likely see each of them, in the weeks before he makes his choice, continue to grovel more and more, at the cost of their own self-respect, and to the detriment of the American public.
The opinions expressed within this piece represent the views of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Jefferson Independent.
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