The State of the 2024 Election: Seven Weeks Out

For reference, all election ratings used in the text and maps of the article employ this color-coded system: 

Safe Democratic: Dark Blue

Likely Democratic: Light Blue

Lean Democratic: Pale Blue

Tossup: Beige

Lean Republican: Pale Red

Likely Republican: Light Red

Safe Republican: Dark Red

 

The Presidential Election

Over the past week, we have had some time to ponder whether the presidential debate will affect the election. The answer so far is: a little, but not much. Harris has increased her national lead slightly and seen good polls in some swing states, but all seven major tossup states remain too close to call at the moment. As such, there are no ratings changes in the presidential race this week. Below are the polling averages provided by FiveThirtyEight for various key states in the race, with the numbers compared to the same ones from last week’s article: 

NATIONAL: Harris +2.8 (+0.2)

Swing States (All Tossups)

Wisconsin: Harris + 1.7 (+1.0)

Michigan: Harris + 2.6 (+0.8)

Pennsylvania: Harris + 1.3 (+0.7)

North Carolina: Trump +0.1 (+0.3)

Georgia: Trump +1.1 (+0.5)

Arizona: Trump +0.5 (+0.3)

Nevada: Harris +0.7 (+0.6)

Peripheral States

Florida (Likely R): Trump +4.2 (no change)

Texas (Likely R): Trump +5.9 (+0.2)

New Hampshire (Likely D): Harris +7.5 (+1.1)

Virginia (Likely D): Harris +7.0 (polling average created after publication)

 

The State of the Senate

Democrats face one of their most challenging Senate maps ever this year;they must defend seats they hold not only in nearly every swing state (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada), but also in three states that vote strongly Republican (Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia). In total, Democrats are defending 23 seats, while Republicans are only defending 11. Of these races, however, there are four that are most likely to determine the ultimate outcome in the Senate: those in Ohio, Montana, Texas, and Florida.

Ohio (tossup): Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, first elected in 2006, faces a state drastically different from when he was first elected. Once a Democratic-leaning swing state, Ohio is fast becoming a Republican stronghold. In order to hold on, Brown will have to outperform Kamala Harris’s concurrent margin in the Presidential race by high single digits, if not double digits—a difficult feat in contemporary American politics. Still, Brown may have a chance to pull off a victory: he has led in every single poll of the race so far, and has raised almost four times as much money as his opponent, Bernie Moreno. If he loses, however, Democrats are almost certain to lose the Senate. Recent polling: Brown +2, Brown +3

Montana (Lean R): Senator Jon Tester (D) is up for the fight of his political life. After squeaking by with relatively narrow margins of victory for his previous three terms, Tester must defy all odds to hold on against opponent Tim Sheehy in a state that voted for Donald Trump by 16 points—and he may be out of luck. While Tester has outraised Sheehy significantly, he is trailing in most polls of the race. It is entirely possible that Tester will be able to regain his standing, especially if Harris also sees a surge nationally, but if trends continue, it is more likely that he will lose—and if he loses, Democrats’ path to Senate control becomes much more narrow. Recent polling: Sheehy +6, Sheehy +7

Texas (Lean R): When Ted Cruz defeated Beto O’Rourke by a mere 2 points in 2018, many believed it was the beginning of a new era of competitiveness in Texas politics. While the election cycles since have been more favorable to Republicans, there is still reason to believe that Cruz may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent of the cycle. Polls support this theory, with Cruz trailing Democratic Representative Colin Allred in the most recent one.  If Democrats want to flip this seat, however, they will have to fully commit to it, investing time and money that they can’t afford to spend unwisely. Recent polling: Allred +1, Cruz +5

Florida (Likely R): Florida elections have proved consistently disappointing for Democrats since 2018, when they failed to flip the governorship and even lost an incumbent Senator despite a Democratic “wave” year elsewhere. Indeed, the past few years of Florida elections have shown a consistent cycle of promising early polling for Democrats followed by an unexpectedly decisive loss on Election Day. Right now, incumbent Republican Rick Scott’s challenger, Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, trails him only slightly, but Democrats should be wary of a consistently rightward trend in the former swing state. Recent polling: Scott +4, Scott +3

These are the seats that matter most if Democrats want to win the Senate. Of course, this list assumes that Democrats are able to hold on in the swing state seats they are defending as well, most of which have fairly popular incumbents running for re-election. If they fail to hold onto any of those, there is a very low chance the incoming President will be dealing with a Democratic Senate majority.

 

Gubernatorial Elections

In 2024, 11 states will hold elections for governor. While this is miniscule compared to the whopping 36 gubernatorial elections held in 2022, there are often a few competitive races in the presidential-year gubernatorial cycle that catch the eye of political analysts. Because of recent developments, however, it seems likely that there will only be one competitive gubernatorial race this year.

Had I made this analysis a year ago, I might have said there were two competitive gubernatorial races this year: in North Carolina and in New Hampshire. North Carolina’s past few elections for governor have been competitive, and the state is being eyed by both the Harris and Trump campaigns as crucial for securing victory. 

Republican primary voters in North Carolina made a likely-fatal unforced error, however, when they nominated Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson for governor. Robinson was already known for his hard-right rhetoric by the time he was nominated, and faced increasing scrutiny throughout the campaign for his stances on matters such as abortion, same-sex marriage, transgender rights, and the Holocaust. While Robinson has been trailing in the polls for most of the campaign, the likely killing blow was delivered on Thursday, when news outlets reported on newly-discovered online posts from Robinson, in which, among other things, he:

• Referred to himself as a “Black Nazi” 
• Stated that he enjoyed watching transgender pornography, despite his prior anti-transgender statements
• Described an adolescent habit of “peeping” on women in public showers
• Admitted to fantasies of cheating on his wife with his sister-in-law
• Expressed support for reinstating slavery

While a few Republicans called for Robinson to be taken off the ballot, he refused to withdraw, and the deadline for removing a candidate passed on September 20—Republicans are now stuck with Robinson, whether they like it or not. Considering Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein already leads by double digits in most polling, Democrats already have one of the two potentially competitive governor’s races under lock and key.

In New Hampshire, now the only competitive governor’s race this year, either party has a shot of winning. Popular incumbent governor Chris Sununu, a Republican, is retiring after 8 years in office. Vying to replace him are former Republican United States Senator Kelly Ayotte and former Democratic Mayor of Manchester Joyce Craig. Sununu was able to garner massive crossover appeal from voters in a Democratic-leaning state, while Ayotte, lacking both incumbency and the Sununu name (Chris’s father served as governor and his brother served as Senator) will likely have a harder time winning. At the moment, only two polls have been released, each showing a different candidate up. Until more information emerges, the race is too close to call.

Every other gubernatorial election to be held this November is almost certain not to be competitive. This is mostly because partisanship in gubernatorial races increasingly matches partisanship in presidential races, meaning voters in safe states for either party are highly likely to vote the same for both governor and president (with the notable exception of Vermont, where liberal Republican governor Phil Scott, one of the most popular governors in the country, will almost certainly be re-elected). It is important to remember, however, that the situation in North Carolina has a reverse: scandals can turn a non-competitive race into a nailbiter in a matter of days.