It might seem strange to say, but we are less than two months out from this year’s presidential election. While the campaign has had an unusually late start given President Biden’s eleventh-hour withdrawal from the race, an uptick in polling and the conclusion of both parties’ conventions have cleared away some of the early haze in the race. It seems appropriate, then, to start making election predictions, a tradition nearly as old as American democracy itself.
The map shown above has seven different color-coded categories, based on how likely I believe it is that each candidate will win a particular state. These categories are:
Safe Democratic, Dark Blue: Harris is practically certain to win the state
Likely Democratic, Light Blue: Harris is very likely to win the state, but a drastic shift in the race could change things
Lean Democratic, Pale Blue: Harris is favored in the state, but not strongly.
Tossup, Beige: The state could go to either candidate.
Lean Republican, Pale Red: Trump is favored in the state, but not strongly (not displayed on current map).
Likely Republican, Light Red: Trump is very likely to win the state, but a drastic shift in the race could change things.
Safe Republican, Dark Red: Trump is practically certain to win the state.
As the total electoral vote count shows, the race is best viewed as a tossup at the moment. Existing polling shows a narrow but relatively consistent lead for Harris both nationally and in major swing states, but these leads are not large enough to make a decisive assessment yet, especially as polling fluctuates throughout the campaign. While I would pick Harris if forced to make a choice—the strength of her fundraising and strong favorability advantage over Trump may indicate a better picture than current polling shows—we remain too far out to be certain.
Despite this relative uncertainty, it is actually fairly easy to predict the outcome in most states. This is a function of intense and growing political polarization in the United States, which has reduced the number of hotly contested states from dozens to just a handful.
The Main Swing States
In an unusual shift for a presidential election, the list of swing states has been remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Some of these states will be familiar to observers of the 2020 election, as they include the five states that Joe Biden narrowly flipped to achieve victory: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. The other two, North Carolina and Nevada, have voted red and blue, respectively, for the past couple of elections, but increasingly narrow margins in each state have put them in play this year.
Let’s dig a bit deeper into the situation in each state:
Wisconsin:
Wisconsin voted for Joe Biden by less than a percentage point in 2020, and it may well be won by a similar margin this year. At the moment, however, the picture in the state is looking fairly rosy for Harris. Some may attribute this newfound polling advantage to her selection of Tim Walz, governor of nearby Minnesota, for vice president (although the evidence for the home state effect working in neighboring states is murky), while others point to Democratic strength in the Milwaukee suburbs. Regardless, the race remains close for now.
Current Polling Margin (per 538): Harris +2.7
Michigan:
In 2020, Michigan was the least close of the current Rust Belt swing states, although Biden’s margin was still under 3%. Still, Michigan is the swing state that has many Democratic strategists worried the most. They worry that backlash from Michigan’s large Arab and Muslim populations in response to the Biden Administration’s handling of the war in Gaza may tip the state in Trump’s favor. During the Democratic Primary, Biden scored one of his lowest vote shares in Michigan. However, Harris distinguishing herself from Biden’s policy could potentially resolve the issue, and, as of now, she does hold a slight lead.
Current Polling Margin: Harris +1.8
Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania is particularly relevant for being the tipping-point state between both a Trump/Clinton victory in 2016 and a Biden/Trump victory in 2020. While shifting demographics could certainly make a different state the crucial “tipping point,” Pennsylvania remains essential to both campaigns. Indeed, a home-state boost in Pennsylvania was arguably the primary reason the state’s governor, Josh Shapiro, was the second-place finalist in Harris’s vice presidential selection process. Without Shapiro on the ticket, the Harris campaign may see a closer race. As with the other Midwest swing states, however, Harris holds a small lead at the moment.
Current Polling Margin: Harris +0.6
Nevada:
Nevada is unusual among states in that Biden’s margin there in 2020 was smaller than Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016. Because of this decline—and Republicans’ success in flipping Nevada’s governorship in 2022—Nevada, which has not voted Republican since 2004, is considered one of Trump’s most plausible flips. At the moment, the race is almost completely tied, and while Nevada only has six electoral votes, these could be crucial in breaking the tie in a narrow race.
Current Polling Margin: Harris +0.1
Arizona:
Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona narrowly entered the Democratic fray in 2020, driven by rapid suburban growth and an increasingly diverse population. This seemed to be confirmed in 2022, when the Republican nominees for Senate and Governor performed poorly. What the Trump campaign hopes, however, is to bring it back to the Republican side. So far, this could pan out: Arizona is narrowly the best swing state for Trump. His lead is fragile, however, and he may have to fight to keep it.
Current Polling Margin: Trump +0.8
Georgia:
Georgia was one of the more shocking wins for the Biden campaign in 2020. The Democrats’ newest inroad into the Deep South was partially reaffirmed in 2022 when voters delivered a split vote for Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock even as popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp won re-election. As with Arizona, however, Georgia is one of the more precarious of the recent Democratic flips, and Trump holds a small lead at the moment.
Current Polling Margin: Trump +0.6
North Carolina:
While perpetually identified as a swing state since Barack Obama won it in 2008, North Carolina has proven to be elusive for Democrats ever since. This year may be theirs, however: an influx of educated voters to the state’s Research Triangle (which includes Chapel Hill, Durham, and Raleigh) and shifts in suburban voting patterns make North Carolina the most likely Trump-won state to flip to Harris. Shockingly, current polling shows Harris performing better here than in some Biden-won states in the South and Southwest.
Current Polling Margin: Harris +0.2
Peripheral States
Suppose the bottom falls out for either Harris or Trump. Or suppose, as tends to happen in elections, that the polls in a particular state—or a few states—happen to be totally off. At the moment, it’s hard to say which states might fall into this category in November, but we can still hazard some rough estimates.
On the Democratic side, these states might include Virginia and New Hampshire, states that have been close in recent memory and, while Biden was still in the race, showed remarkably close polling. Minnesota might have been included on this list had Tim Walz not been chosen as Harris’s Vice Presidential Candidate; at this point, it is very difficult to imagine the ticket losing the midwestern state even in a remarkably strong Trump victory.
On the Republican side, these states include Florida and Texas. Florida, once infamous for its status as the closest swing state, has drifted sharply to the right in recent years. While polling shows the election there as statistically close, early Florida polling is notoriously finicky and we may have to wait for a clearer picture. Texas, on the other hand, while traditionally seen as the ultimate GOP bastion, has trended rapidly left in recent years, voting for Trump by a mere 5.5 points in 2020. If Harris runs a truly spectacular campaign, this year may well be the one where Texas flips.
Current Polling Margins
Virginia: (no polling average yet, most recent results are Harris +8 and Harris +10)
New Hampshire: Harris +6.4
Florida: Trump +4.2
Texas: Trump +6.1
The opinions expressed within this piece represent the views of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Jefferson Independent.
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