
On March 7, 2024, President Joe Biden delivered the annual State of the Union Address. At the time, Biden was in the depths of the most recent of his presidency’s many lows. His approval rating—roughly 38%—was lower than it had ever been in his presidency, and his net approval—roughly negative 18%—was lower than all 12 postwar presidents whose presidencies lasted as long as Biden’s. For the past few months, Trump had been maintaining a consistent lead in polling averages for the upcoming presidential election, and poll after poll had shown him leading by large margins in swing states. To add insult to injury, the recently-released report on Biden’s possession of classified documents raised serious concerns about the already-serious issue of his age.
As expected, before Biden gave his address, the atmosphere was a bit tense for Democrats. Before even giving the speech, Biden already faced one challenge in navigating his way past crowds protesting the war in Gaza—a sign of discontent within his own party over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. To many, how he delivered his speech could set the tone for the rest of the campaign—one unfortunate gaffe could make ignoring the age issue impossible, while a rousing speech could be the first step to re-election.
A Reversal of Fortune?
After the speech, the response from Democrats and many media analysts was quite positive. TIME described it as a “top career performance” that delivered a “sharp rebuke” to concerns about his age; Politico called it a “vigorous and rapid speech” that was ultimately pleasing to many Democrats; and the Associated Press noted its much more energetic tone in comparison to prior speeches and carefully-crafted attempts to set the stage for the 2024 election in Biden’s favor.
Of course, responses were not universally positive; Republican lawmakers heckled Biden during his remarks, and many conservative pundits were unhappy with the defiant, partisan tone of the speech. Many Democrats were also critical of Biden’s remarks on the war in Gaza and usage of the charged term “an illegal,” but most still agreed that the speech was, on the whole, well-done. As the cherry on top for Democrats, Republicans stumbled with a “creepy” and “insincere” rebuttal by Senator Katie Britt of Alabama.
With all of this positive chatter around Biden, many pundits settled around a single term to describe the address and changes in polling and approval that came after it: “Comeback.” New York Times columnist Ezra Klein, for example, praised the new direction Biden’s campaign seemed to be going in and expressed willingness to change his previous view that Biden should drop out. Many compared Biden’s situation to that of Harry Truman in 1948, who famously achieved a shocking victory after the vast majority of newspapers predicted a sound defeat. And article after article after article seems to provide piece after piece of evidence that Biden is rising up in the polls.
A Reality Check
What these articles get right is that there have been many recent polls showing Biden leading Trump or improving on his previous margins. What many of them fail to understand, however, is that a single poll—even from a highly-respected pollster—rarely has much value on its own. The real value of polls comes from what they tell us when taken as a whole—and when not cherry-picked for the sake of a catchy headline, the polling landscape shows a more ambiguous picture for Biden.
For instance, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of Biden’s approval rating does indeed show a slight bump after the State of the Union (SOTU) address, from around -18% net approval to around -14%. However, after just a few days, his approval went back down to around -16%. What this tells us is that while there was possibly some movement in Biden’s favor in the few weeks after the SOTU, much of this movement was either temporary or simply statistical noise.
Polls for the 2024 election show a similar story. The Hill’s polling average shows a slight bump for Biden—going from a roughly 2-point deficit to a roughly 1-point deficit—but polling appears to have stabilized. Race to the White House’s average is essentially the same; its charted-out display of each candidate’s lead since the start of 2023 does an excellent job of showing just how little the actual numbers have changed recently.
Another flaw with the narrative of a SOTU-fueled comeback stems from the speech’s audience: not many people watched the address at all. In total, roughly 32 million people, or about one-eighth of the voting-age population of approximately 255 million, tuned in to watch the address; of those viewers, only 5% were aged 18-34, 19% were aged 35-54, and a full 74% were 55 or older. The age distribution should not be taken at face value, as many younger people simply don’t watch television at all, and many of those who did not watch the address on television likely heard about it on news sites, social media, or a host of other platforms. Still, the reality is that most of the people who watched it skewed to the older side—and most older people already have firmly-held political convictions. The vast majority of people who actually watched the address, in addition to most of those who got enough information about it to form an opinion, were likely already committed partisans unlikely to be swayed by a single speech.
Eyes on November
What really matters, then, is not what the polls say, or even whether the speech had much of a direct effect on people at all; instead, it is what the speech represents for Biden. For too long, Biden’s campaign has been hyper-fixated on the idea that it has been doing everything right, that the administration’s numerous accomplishments render the complaints of those who say something needs to change—or that Biden needs to drop out—null. While it is true that there are some accomplishments from Biden’s term that might be appealing to the public, the blind eye the administration had turned to concerns about Biden’s age, his handling of the war in Gaza, and dismal public perceptions of the economy bordered on bewildering. Now, the administration has a clear path forward with the age issue: more fiery, energetic speeches, and if that doesn’t work, diverting negative attention to Trump.
As for the other two complaints, the party faces a more complicated situation. Consumer sentiment on the economy remains low, but has ticked up recently. Biden’s campaign would do good to emphasize improvement, as seen in the SOTU, but also to acknowledge that voters’ economic concerns are valid. As for Gaza, public opinion has soured significantly over the past few months on Israel’s military action in the region. For Democrats and Independents in particular, opinion is overwhelmingly negative. Biden has already indicated a bit of a tonal shift in his policy by more aggressively criticizing Netanyahu, but many believe it is not enough. Democratic Senator Chris van Hollen of Maryland, for instance, lamented that Netanyahu was essentially “giving [Biden] the finger” in defying the administration’s requests for increased aid and made a plea for “real action” on Biden’s part.
It might be too early to say Biden has made a comeback—in fact, it’s too early to make any definitive assessments of the 2024 elections—but the blueprints for one are there. All Biden needs to do now is to follow the course he started on with the State of the Union—and make a continuous effort to take the concerns of voters seriously—and he’ll have a solid chance of defeating Trump in November.
The opinions expressed within this piece represent the views of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Jefferson Independent.
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