Tuesday’s election might be one of the closest and most important in recent memory for those in the United States. And although at home it seems as though this is said about every election, for the rest of the world, that might be more true than ever. The expectations and fears of leaders and peoples across the globe rarely receive the same level of coverage as those within the United States, but are still a critical element to watch in the wake of Election Day. The possible implications of the election are substantial, with wide-ranging implications for South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. All things considered, the election of Vice President Harris would not necessarily see any major shakeups compared to President Biden. However, a second Trump term would cause global shockwaves.
Perhaps closest to the heart of former President Trump is South and Central America. With immigration at the forefront of his campaign strategy, a Trump victory will significantly impact the region. Foremost have been concerns over U.S. military interventions in Mexico. A proposal which first made major headlines after being mentioned by Vivek Ramaswamy at a presidential debate has been potential military solutions to the drug crisis facing the United States. These ideas have included potential special forces raids, or even what some fear would be acts of war against Mexico. Vice presidential candidate JD Vance has also raised this idea in the past, suggesting the nation “use the power of the U.S. military” against foreign cartels.
There are other potential ramifications for the hemisphere, namely in the potential deportation of illegal immigrants, who may be forced to return by the millions to their home countries. Doing so would pose a major threat to local economies and labor markets facing a flood of returnees. Additionally, Venezuela faces a much more serious threat of military interference by peer countries, which had been narrowly prevented during Trump’s first term. A realignment of US friendship could also occur, with President Millei of Argentina favoring Trump, while leftist Gustavo Petro of Colombia could face increasing headwinds in an already strained relationship with the United States.
The key issue facing US foreign policy in the final days before the election has been the war in Ukraine. The Trump campaign has taken a drastically different approach than Harris, proclaiming an ability to end the war shortly after the election. The end of the war in the eyes of the Trump campaign, however, would not involve a dramatic US intervention in favor of Ukraine. Instead, JD Vance has mentioned a pro-Russia outcome through negotiations, a major fear of many in Ukraine and Europe. If a future Trump administration ended weapon supplies for Ukraine, that would mark a major blow for the nation and hasten recent Russian advances. The Harris campaign has used this issue to draw a dividing line between her campaign and Trump’s, focusing on her staunch future support for Ukraine when speaking with foreign leaders and about foreign policy more broadly. President Trump also previously mentioned permitting Russian violations of NATO’s mutual defense treaty if member states did not meet certain spending thresholds, sparking fears in Europe and the United States over the future of the critical treaty, which is supposed to guarantee US military protection of many small and vulnerable European states.
Asia and the Middle East are also facing major uncertainties over the future of multiple conflicts and rivalries in the region as the world waits for November 5th. Key among global issues has been the Israel-Hamas War, which has spilled into Syria, Iraq, Iran, and recently Lebanon, with an ongoing Israeli ground invasion. Many believe the Israeli government is delaying negotiations until the outcome of the US election is determined, in order to determine the future direction of US support. Netanyahu and many of his allies in Israel prefer a President Trump over a President Harris, given the Biden Administration’s increasing scrutiny of the Israeli war effort, and the promised continuation or even escalation of said scrutiny under Harris. Meanwhile, Trump would be seen as potentially giving Israel a greenlight to pursue more aggressive and punitive measures, including even land seizures in Gaza or an annexation of the West Bank into Israel proper.
East Asia will also be impacted by a potential Trump victory. Contrary to popular perception, Chinese leadership may in fact favor a Trump Administration. While some CCP officials have expressed reservations about Trump when compared to Harris, given the marked decline in relations between 2017 and 2021. However, some in China view Trump’s inconsistency in handling allied relationships—including with South Korea and Japan—as well as his willingness to withdraw from portions of the world as a major opportunity to exploit. However, no matter the outcome, the broad consensus among the US foreign policy establishment is that China has become the most significant rival to the US in the modern world, and relations are almost certainly not going to improve no matter the candidate.
While tens of millions of Americans will be watching their screens with baited breath Tuesday night, so too will tens of millions around the world. Whether in Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Venezuela, Taiwan, or elsewhere, the next four years of American policy will impact their lives in ways many in the United States do not realize or recognize.
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