The aftermath of the 2024 presidential election will not only be felt in the United States, but around the world. Already, some of the most important and frequently discussed and reported-on areas of concern have been involving foreign policy. From Ukraine to the Middle East, the foreign policy of the incoming Trump administration will be one of the most critical areas of change compared to President Biden. Though Republican control of all three legislative branches of government is almost assured, the difficulties inherent in passing laws with such narrow majorities will make international relations, which the president has practically complete control over, the most variable area in US policy over the next four years.
The war between Russia and Ukraine remains one of the most deadly and consequential conflicts in the world, and has seen substantial speculation surrounding potential Trump administration policy shifts. A substantial amount of reporting has flooded in since the election, covering the variety of peace proposals and military aid impacts heralded in by the election of former President Trump. First, both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated former President Trump. Zelenskyy’s message of congratulation specifically mentioned his meeting with Trump earlier this year, after which a degree of reconciliation emerged. The Ukrainian war effort remains highly reliant upon US military, economic, and political aid, without which the conflict could deteriorate substantially for Ukraine. Yet, both sides have seen Trump’s election as an opportunity; Vladimir Putin also congratulated Trump, noting the opportunity to begin negotiations.
Whether negotiations are likely is unclear, but the incoming Trump administration promised to end the war rapidly upon taking office. As a result, much scrutiny has been placed on how exactly such a deal would be possible when both sides have staunchly refused to negotiate thus far. An initial plan presented by a high-level Republican advisor after the election emphasized the surrender of territory by Ukraine, sparking immediate controversy. However, the Trump transition team immediately distanced themselves from this proposal. It is still unclear exactly how the Trump administration will fulfill this specific campaign promise, but early signs are not favorable for Ukraine.
Speculation after the November 5th election surrounded the possible return of Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo to the White House cabinet. Either of the two staunch neoconservatives would provide a strong pro-interventionist and pro-Ukraine voice in the administration. However, Trump quickly quashed these rumors, stating neither would have a role in his new term. A more isolationist Secretary of State would have impacts not only in Europe, but also across the rest of the world, possibly isolating allies and signaling an opportunity for some nations to seize land from neighbors without the risk of American intervention.
Elsewhere in Europe, the mood is generally darker. With repeated doubts about the continued commitment of the United States to both Ukraine and the long-standing NATO alliance, many on the continent are preparing to mitigate their reliance on Americans in the future. However, leaders are avoiding direct denouncements of the president-elect, fearing a repeat of the strained relationships seen during the first Trump Administration. Some are not so cautious; longtime conservative ally Victor Orban of Hungary, now more isolated within the European Union than ever, has been delighted by Trump’s victory.
President-elect Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel have already called after Trump’s election victory, emphasizing their agreement on issues such as Iran. Iran may return to news headlines soon, having indicated another possible strike on Israel, deepening the conflict between the nations. The Middle East was in the minds of many when casting their ballots on November 5th, where some key counties in Michigan saw a strong swing towards Trump in Middle-Eastern-immigrant-heavy areas, speculated as being the result of the Biden administration’s support for Israel. However, the Trump Administration will likely be even more pro-Israel, and many on the right-wing in Israel are celebrating his victory.
Asia remains an area of growing concern as China’s power reaches a new peak. However, no substantial differences were drawn between the two candidates before the election, and no major developments have been seen since November 5th. Some nations in Southeast Asia have indicated concerns over the possibility of escalation due to Trump’s consistently heated rhetoric, but no major public statements have been released.
The next two months until the inauguration of the new Trump administration will see a number of key developments to observe. First, those Trump appoints to his cabinet will indicate, to a substantial degree, the direction the president-elect may take on a variety of matters. The positions these picks held before the election and the statements made after their nominations will be heavily scrutinized in an attempt to predict the eternally fluctuating Trump. However, one constant remains in both past and future Trump Administration foreign policies: complete unpredictability.
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