‘The Redskins Rule’: How Football Can Predict Elections Better Than Pollsters

As people try to predict the upcoming election results, pollsters employ many different methodologies. However, according to the University of California-Berkeley, only 60% of these polls are accurate in predicting the outcomes. There is one method that has only ever been wrong two times since 1936, giving it a 90% accuracy rate–more accurate than a majority of the polls out there. This method is known as the “Redskins Rule,” and it has only been incorrect in 2012 and 2016. 

The rule is quite simple. If the Washington Commanders (formerly the Washington Redskins) win their last home game before Election Day, the party in power stays in power. This team, ironically based in DC, is able to consistently predict the outcome using this methodology.

This actually had a 100% success rate until 2004, when George W. Bush won re-election following a Commanders loss. Desperate to keep the rule intact, Steve Hirdst of the Elias Sports Bureau created what is known as “Redskins Rule 2.0” in 2012. The amendment states that if the popular vote winner does not win the Electoral College, the rule has the opposite effect for the following election. In 2000, Bush won the Electoral College but not the popular vote, meaning that in 2004 the rule was reversed, and the prediction remained accurate. 

This amended rule also applied to 2020. In 2016, Trump did not win the popular vote; in 2020 when the Commanders defeated the Cowboys 25-3, the rule was reversed and it was predicted that Biden would win, which is exactly what happened. 

This year’s big game occurred over the weekend against the Chicago Bears. In the 4th quarter, the Bears were down 12-7 before gaining the lead with 23 seconds left in the game and completing a two-point conversion for a 15-12 win.

With 12 seconds left in the game, the Commanders had a 1.4% probability of winning. They were at their 40 yard line when the ball was snapped. Quarterback Jayden Daniels ran the ball 40 yards before sending a Hail Mary to wide receiver Noah Brown, winning the game in the final seconds. 

The Bears corner Tyrique Stevenson was actually taunting the Commanders fans while this final play was happening. He didn’t even turn around from the fans until the Commanders receivers were at the 30 yard line, and didn’t start to go towards them until they reached the 15 yard line. Followup reports confirmed that he was supposed to be the one covering Noah Brown during that play. He released an apology on X that received mixed reviews, saying, “To Chicago and teammates my apologies for lack of awareness and focus …. The game ain’t over until zeros hit the clock. Can’t take anything for granted. Notes taken, improvement will happen.”

This result predicts a win for Kamala Harris on November 5th; even though she is not the incumbent candidate, she is part of the incumbent party. We will see on Tuesday whether this rule stays consistent, or if Donald Trump will be an exception to this rule like he was in 2016.