Just over a week ago, it seems a second attempt has been made on the life of former president Donald Trump. As alleged in Department of Justice documents, a gunman, hidden in the bushes, waited for Trump to pass by his firing position in a Florida golf course to take a shot, coming within hundreds of feet of his target. However, before Trump reached his position, a Secret Service agent noticed the man and opened fire. The suspect fled before being captured some distance away in his vehicle.
All of these details have been widely reported by the media, most recently and comprehensively as part of a recent Justice Department memo. This information does not substantially differ from the amount available after the previous assassination attempt made over the summer during a rally in Pennsylvania. However, this event is notable- not only due to the significance of a possible second attempt on the life of a current presidential candidate- but also due to the motive which seems to be forming. Compared to the enigma of the shooter’s motive in Butler, Pennsylvania- who continues to baffle investigators– the most recent suspect, Ryan Routh, has a long history and clear trail of ideological stances which place him squarely at odds with the Republican presidential nominee.
Most presidential assassination attempts tend to be conducted by mentally unwell individuals. From President Reagan’s would-be killer to those of Ford, most espouse incomprehensible or delusional ambitions. Ryan Routh is alleged to be notably different. Unlike the Pennsylvania assassin, Routh’s social media history and public statements are well documented- and indicate clear foreign policy radicalization beginning in 2022.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he would soon arrive in Kyiv, participating in media events and raising awareness of the plight of Ukraine. He also allegedly attempted to enlist in the International Legion- a group of international volunteers who fight on the front lines against Russian, many of whom have died in combat. Routh claimed his application was rejected due to his age and lack of military experience.
Undeterred, Routh remained dedicated to the war, hatching a scheme in 2022 to funnel fighters from the Middle East into Ukraine to fight against Russia. After plans to use Iraqis and Syrians failed, Routh pivoted to Afghan soldiers who once fought alongside the United States but had now discarded their uniforms and entered hiding after the Taliban victory. One New York Times reporter interviewed Routh in 2023, where the latter explained his scheme of bribing and smuggling potential fighters out of Iran and Afghanistan into Ukraine. This plan never came to fruition despite his intense lobbying efforts to Congress and the Ukrainian government and military.
Routh’s views on foreign policy and Trump were quite apparent. At one point, he tweeted “We need to burn the Kremlin to the ground,” among other social media tirades. More can be found in his book “Ukraine’s Unwinnable War,” still available on Amazon (though expensive and without a single review). In it, Routh wrote in regards to Iran: “You are free to assassinate Trump,” which has become one of the most visible and quoted lines since the alleged assassination attempt.
While his advocacy and dedication to the war in Ukraine is clear- as is his hatred of former President Trump, these two facts do not inherently guarantee an obvious motive. While the court case will likely take a significant amount of time to resolve, and more evidence is certain to be released in the coming months or even years, this Monday has seen a major development in a recent Department of Justice filing against Routh which ties the causal loop shut and provides a strong argument as to a possible motive. In a letter sent to an acquaintance months ago, Routh allegedly stated his intention to assassinate the ex-president as he is “unfit to be anything,” and does not “embody the moral fabric that is America.” Later on, the letter discusses President Trump’s foreign policy actions during his administration, which are described as the cause of recent disasters in the Middle East. If truly sent by Routh, this letter would confirm the event as a failed assassination, motivated by hatred of Trump and his foreign policy actions.
While Ryan Routh has not yet been convicted, the evidence provided by the Department of Justice and past investigative reporting indicates Ryan Routh held deep convictions on matters of foreign affairs, which drove him to a variety of schemes in support of Ukraine. Whether this conviction caused an assassination attempt against the former president will still need to be litigated in court. If so, this would mark a unique, unusually policy-oriented motive rare in past assassination attempts.
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