The idea of the College Football Playoff and its rankings is about as confusing as it gets. But after experiencing the mayhem of the UVA field rush against Florida State, there’s a part of every UVA student wondering if the impossible is possible — can UVA find itself in a playoff game come December?
To begin, let’s go over who actually makes up the selection committee. The committee is made up of 13 people, including athletic directors, former coaches and players, and a media representative. At the end of each week, they release a ranking of the top 25 teams in the country. While these rankings are based on a collection of various statistics the committee is presented with, there’s no exact formula as to determining where a team gets ranked. For example, Florida State was famously held out of the 2023 playoff despite being undefeated. The committee argued that a season-ending injury to its starting quarterback was enough for them to consider teams with losses, like Texas, to be more worthy of a spot. With UVA’s win over Louisville last week, UVA is now ranked at No. 19 in the country after its Week 7 Bye.
At the end of the 13-week season, 12 teams are selected to compete in the playoffs. The winner of the playoffs takes home the national championship, while teams that didn’t make the cut compete in an array of bowl games. But here’s the catch — just because you’re a top 12 ranked team doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll make the playoffs. Instead, the selection committee will choose the five highest ranked conference champions to compete, even if one of the five highest ranked champions comes from outside of the top 12. In these cases, a 12th-ranked team stands the chance of missing out. UVA competes in the ACC, meaning that its current competition for a conference champion spot is essentially against Georgia Tech (ranked No. 12) and Miami (ranked No. 2). Overtaking either of these teams would require UVA winning the remainder of its games in a convincing fashion, along with Georgia Tech and Miami to take losses in the next few weeks.
As a hate-watching UVA fan, this means that Georgia Tech’s game at Duke in two weeks will be crucial. The rest of Georgia Tech’s schedule consists of head coachless teams (looking at you Virginia Tech) and floundering programs (Boston College at one win probably isn’t going to help us out). On the flip side, Miami seems poised to cruise through the rest of the season unless Louisville is able to pull off an upset in Week 8.
In this case, UVA would have to claim one of the other seven spots. These spots are guaranteed for the next seven highest ranked teams after conference champions. By moving into the top 12 rankings, UVA could position itself for possibly making it. This strategy would again require convincing wins by UVA over the next few weeks, and teams in the 10-20 range to drop a game or two. While a stumble by Georgia Tech would be great, UVA will also have to rely on schools like Michigan, Notre Dame, or LSU to underperform in at least one game.
At the end of the day, UVA’s chances of making the playoffs sit at around 14%, and any future loss will bring that number back down to zero. Aside from UVA’s consistency and blowout wins for the rest of the season, hopes for the national championship will ultimately rest on how other schools end up doing. If you see UVA inch up the rankings toward that No. 12 spot, we stand a chance. However, even if UVA doesn’t make the playoffs, UVA football has already delivered some memorable wins this season and has likely secured a bowl game appearance. Buckle up for an exciting rest of the season, and keep an eye on schools like Missouri, Georgia Tech, BYU, and Tennessee to see if UVA can vault into playoff contention.
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