Updates on the Russia-Ukraine War still appear in our daily news, but Russia’s steadfast commitment to continuing the conflict has kept the situation at the front relatively static over the last couple of years. Yet two important developments — not even principally concerned with Ukraine — offer insight into Russia’s long-term plans. Namely, the recent drone and air incursions into NATO countries and the trove of Russian-Chinese documents hacked by an activist group in the last couple of weeks. UVA Professor Gerard Alexander’s insight and reports from research institutions can keep you in the loop on the constantly evolving conflict.
Most recently, it appears that Russia and China’s relationship has taken a startling new turn. Hacked documents indicate that Russia sold a battalion’s worth of special equipment used for airborne units to China back in 2023. In addition, Russia agreed to train Chinese units and set up a center in China for the maintenance of new Russian equipment being integrated into the Chinese military. The documents were obtained by the “hacktivist” group Black Moon and verified by the Royal United Services Institute in England. Looking beyond the upward trend in military cooperation shown in the documents, it appears that the airborne units from Russia are the equipment likely needed to carry out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
So, what does this have to do with Ukraine? Well, the fact of Russian-Chinese cooperation, or of China’s hostility toward Taiwan, is not a new development. However, this level of cooperation suggests that Russia now considers a conflict between the two beneficial for its own goals. Professor Alexander and analysts are quick to point out that cooperation is not able to overcome the military limitations China and Russia already face. However, the possibility that Russia is operating in Ukraine under the assumption that a Taiwan conflict will occur is a serious quandary for Western decision makers. In this event, NATO support would be stretched precariously thin. While the Western approach to Russia has been to simply wait until Russia’s economy collapses, it is possible that more decisive decisions need to be made in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Russian drone and air incursions over the Baltic countries in the last few weeks have been another object of international critique. While Russia has claimed that all entries into foreign airspace were accidental, a report by the Institute for the Study of War concluded that there were too many drones for it to have been a mere mistake. In a separate provocation, three Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace unannounced for 12 minutes.
These violations are another instance of Russia indirectly threatening supporters of Ukraine in an effort to shake their support. Professor Alexander pointed out how Russia has engaged in this hybrid war for years, mainly in cyberspace, to make western nations second-guess their alliance. The Polish drone incursion in particular is a much more physical and direct extension of this decade-long Russian policy. When considering the implications for Ukraine, the conclusions are sobering; just a couple of months removed from a presidential summit in Alaska and a concentrated push for peace negotiations, Russia’s deterrence and commitment to the war have reached unprecedented and far more dangerous levels. Ukraine has known from the start that the primary goal of Putin has been to fully occupy the country, and Russia is preparing itself for several more years of conflict to achieve this goal. It is to western countries and their policy makers — who often make decisions based on a short war assumption — that these latest actions should give pause for thought.
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