This article is part of a series dedicated to placing a spotlight on ongoing conflicts and events around the globe that do not receive the same degree of attention as others. The first article in the series, on the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, can be accessed here.
For almost four consecutive years, a civil war has been raging in Myanmar. On one side are the forces of the ruling military junta, and on the other is a coalition of anti-junta rebels and assorted militias from Myanmar’s minority ethnic groups. In total, the conflict has killed at least 52,000 people. Despite its massive death toll, however, the conflict appears to have become, in the eyes of many foreign policy analysts, a “forgotten crisis.” Brutal wars in Ukraine and Palestine and large political shifts in the United States, have, for the most part, driven attention away from the war.
Many Americans may actually know a decent bit about Myanmar’s recent history. Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel Laureate, political prisoner during Myanmar’s previous military junta, and leader of Myanmar from 2016 to 2021, is perhaps the most famous figure from the country’s modern era. Many in particular have admired her for her decades-long resistance to the country’s authoritarian government. Seen a mere few years ago as an example of an emerging democracy, Myanmar’s international reputation has taken a dark turn in recent years. Contributing perhaps most prominently to this democratic slippage was Aung San Suu Kyi’s government’s policy towards the long-persecuted Rohingya minority group, which rights groups such as Human Rights Watch have defined as constituting “acts of genocide” and “crimes against humanity of apartheid, persecution, and deprivation of liberty.”
Inter-ethnic conflicts and persecution are nothing new to Myanmar. For some background: around two-thirds of Myanmar’s population comes from the Bamar ethnic group, which is concentrated in the centrally located Irrawaddy River Valley and historically dominated the politics of the pre-colonial Burmese states. Other ethnic groups, such as the Karen, Rakhine, Shan, Mon, and a small ethnically Chinese population make up the other third. These peoples are generally concentrated in the eastern and western ends of the country, which tend to be more mountainous and less suited for agriculture.
When the United Kingdom conquered the Kingdom of Burma in the 1880s, the newly established British authorities, fearful that allowing Bamar majority rule in Myanmar would loosen their grip on the territory, placed ethnic minorities in prominent positions instead. During the Second World War, when Japan invaded Southeast Asia, minority groups generally sided with the British, while the Bamar population generally sided with Japan. Shortly after the war, Britain agreed to grant the territory independence, but turned its back on minority demands for independence, instead advocating for a unified Burmese state. What happened next is complicated. Some believe that Aung San, the most prominent Burmese independence leader and father of Aung San Suu Kyi, helped to negotiate and implement a settlement with the country’s minority groups promising autonomy and guaranteed rights during the 1947 Panglong Conference, but his dreams were tragically cut short following his assassination that same year. Others believe, however, that he was less than an active participant in the process, and simply followed along with it to ensure a unified Burma.
Regardless, the period following his assassination marked the beginning of what has proved to be a near-endless conflict between Myanmar’s government and various ethnic armed groups. Even in periods of relative calm in non-Bamar regions, the country’s minorities have faced systemic discrimination in the economic, political, and military spheres. Indeed, Myanmar’s conflict over the rights of ethnic minorities is one of the longest ongoing conflicts in the world.
Myanmar’s peripheral regions are not the only ones that have faced consistent conflict and oppression. From 1962 to 2011, the country was nearly continuously ruled by a dictatorship backed by the nation’s armed forces known as the Tatmadaw. The Tatmadaw-led junta nominally dissolved in 2011, beginning a gradual transition towards democracy that eventually resulted in Aung San Suu Kyi democratically assuming power in 2016, but, as mentioned previously, the military swept back into power a mere five years later, setting off the chain of events that would lead to the current civil war.
Following the 2021 coup, massive protests broke out across the country, culminating in the deaths of hundreds—if not thousands—of protestors to government forces, and the execution of pro-democracy activists. In response to these crackdowns, ethnic militias and armed groups loyal to Aung San Suu Kyi’s government took up arms against the Tatmadaw, beginning the war in full force. From 2021 to 2023, rebel forces slowly took over more and more territory, significantly reducing the junta’s presence in the east, north, and west of the country. In October 2023, the rebel groups launched a major offensive, known as Operation 1027, which made significantly more progress, and led some news organizations to speculate that the military regime might have been on its last legs.
While the offensive force did succeed in taking large amounts of territory from the Tatmadaw, it did not end the war. Developments in the past few months, however, have given cause for optimism for the rebels. A rapid offensive in late 2024, for instance, put rebel forces in control of most of Rakhine State, located in Myanmar’s coastal west and the home of much of the country’s Rohingya population.
The end of the war, while in sight, will not be easy to achieve, however. China’s influence looms large in Myanmar, with which it shares a border, and the Chinese government has wavered between tacitly supporting rebel actions such as Operation 1027 and pressuring rebel groups to declare ceasefires or negotiate with the military regime. At the moment, however, it appears that there is a relative lull in the conflict, and the military regime has reduced the frequency of its devastating airstrikes in rebel areas. According to NPR’s Senior Asia Correspondent, Michael Sullivan, China is currently pushing the military regime to hold elections and eventually end the war—potentially by the end of the year. Whether or not China, the Tatmadaw, or even the rebels can be trusted to hold up each end of the bargain, of course, remains to be seen.
Leave a Reply