Middle Grounds: President Biden as the 2024 Democratic Nominee

Pro: Biden Should Stay in the Democratic Primary Due To His Track Record, Fundraising Advantage, and Impact on Government Stability

The rhetoric surrounding the current state of Joe Biden’s 2024 Reelection Campaign is similar to that of his 2020 Democratic Primary Campaign prior to his victory in South Carolina. Even then, portions of the American public believed Biden to be too old and out of touch to serve as President. Then, Biden ended up securing the Democratic Nomination and the presidency that November. This time, his electoral fate is once again in question. Never one to sell himself short, Biden himself was recently quoted in his high-profile portrait in The New Yorker saying “Well, first of all, remember, in 2020, you guys told me how I wasn’t going to win? And then you told me in 2022 how it was going to be this red wave? And in 2023 you told me we’re going to get our ass kicked again? And we won every contested race out there… In 2024, I think you’re going to see the same thing.” 

And as far results go, he’s exactly right. Since his ascendancy to the Presidential Office, the American public has shown up for Biden time and time again. In 2022, when politicos across the ideological spectrum predicted a Red Wave, Democrats expanded their Senate majority, picked up two governors’ seats, and saw the best performance in decades by an incumbent party. 

In the wake of these midterms, many have attributed Democrats’ outsized performance to the controversial overturning of Roe V. Wade, but even if this is the case, Biden is on the right side of a highly-mobilizing issue for many Americans. 62% of Americans agree with Biden in that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And his team has publicly stated that they’ll make reproductive rights a central component of his 2024 Reelection Campaign… Who’s to say aggrieved voters won’t turn up to bail Biden out one more time?   

Biden has cautiously guided the country through a withdrawal from the war in Afghanistan, the outbreak of international conflicts, and a robust legislative agenda, including the American Rescue Plan, a Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, the largest gun safety bill in 30 years, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Violent crime in America has dropped to nearly a fifty-year low, unemployment is below 4%, (a significant decrease from the 6.3% at the time of Biden’s election,)  and the stock market’s value is hitting record highs. Biden has proven himself a steady hand in the Executive Branch; why risk tipping over the apple cart?    

Furthermore, I would argue the Campaign is only just now hitting its swing. After spending roughly $14 million dollars over the first 9 months of 2023, Biden’s Campaign spent nearly $19.3 million in the final financial quarter of 2023. Biden, in tandem with the DNC, reportedly has raised $56 million cash reserves on hand, and without a serious primary challenger, he’s been able to stockpile cash. Trump, on the other hand, hasn’t yet (officially) won The Republican Party’s nomination, and so isn’t allowed to raise money in tandem with The RNC. Since he is currently in the middle of a primary contest and joint fundraising committees have to spend serious cash on Trump’s legal defense fees, he currently has raised just over $30 million in cash reserves. I would argue the general public’s softening toward the idea of a Trump Presidency will change as Bidenworld begins to dig into its vast coffers, and Trump’s legal challenges continue to mount. The second that you introduce the idea of a hypothetical conviction to poll participants, the numbers improve immensely for Biden, from a one-percentage point lead, to a six-percentage point lead, according to one NPR Poll. 

Finally, Biden withdrawing from the race at this point would not only become a political spectacle, but would potentially cast serious doubts on the Democrats’ capability to govern effectively, a serious concern when running against the prototypical “chaos candidate.” Such a move could severely disrupt the legislative process and diminish Joe Biden’s ability to wield the powers of the presidency effectively. Knowing that Biden would not be in office beyond the next year, Republicans’ willingness to collaborate in Congress would only continue to decrease. It’s also worth noting that the last time the Democrats faced an open convention was in 1968. Then, the internal strife spilled over into public view, resulting in a significant number of Democrats staying home on Election Day, which contributed to Richard Nixon’s narrow victory later that year. Democrats need to learn from the lessons of the recent past, not repeat them. 

• Wyatt Carter

 

Con: Biden Should Not Stay in the Democratic Primary Due To His Age, Handling of the Middle-East, and the Potential of Alternative Candidates 

Right now, it seems like Americans are barreling towards an election that nobody asked for. A recent UMass Amherst poll found that almost half of Americans feel that a rematch between Biden and Trump would be bad for the country, while not even 30% feel it would be a good thing. Much of this is because voters are unhappy with both candidates; a clear majority of Americans think it would be better for America if either candidate were to drop out. 

But while the majority of voters overall are unenthusiastic about both candidates, Biden has a unique problem: even Democrats aren’t too happy about his candidacy. Only a quarter of Democrats think it would be worse for America if Biden were to drop out, while almost 40% think it would be better. This, then, begs the question: why doesn’t Biden drop out? In this article, I’d like to put forward the four major reasons why he should. 

Reason One: Age

“Old” is, for most Americans, the first word that comes to mind when they think of Joe Biden. It’s not unreasonable, since at 81 years old—and, if re-elected, 86 by the end of his presidency—Biden is the oldest president in American history. As the median American is 38 years old and Biden was first elected to the Senate over 50 years ago, a majority of Americans were born well after he began his political career. And while recent presidents tend to have a track record of living longer than the average American, it is important to note that Biden surpassed the average American lifespan—77 years old—at the very beginning of his presidency. 

Unsurprisingly, voters are acutely aware of these facts. A recent Quinnipiac poll shows that two-thirds of Americans believe Biden is too old to serve another term as president; more specifically, 62% believe he lacks the physical fitness to serve another term, while 64% believe he lacks the mental fitness. Certainly, it would be fair to point out that Trump is a mere four years younger than Biden. However, whether it’s fair or not that they think so, most voters simply don’t see Trump’s age as an issue: 57% think he is not too old to serve as president, while 60% believe he is physically fit to be president, and 48% say he is mentally fit. Unfortunately for Biden, age isn’t exactly an issue that gets better—if anything, as election season brings him into the spotlight more frequently, the recent classified documents report that raised serious concerns about his memory will only be the beginning.

Reason Two: Gaza

At the time of writing, the war in Gaza will have been going on for over four and a half months, with little hope of an end in sight. Over the course of the war, over 30,000 people have died: over 29,000 Palestinians and 1,400 Israelis. On the Israeli side, around 600 were soldiers, while around 800 were civilians. On the Palestinian size, estimates are fuzzier. The Lancet, known for its estimates of Iraq War casualties, estimates that at least 68.1% of deaths are of women, children, and adults over 60; another estimate published in Haaretz calculated that around 61% of deaths were civilian deaths. Other organizations, such as the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor, note that other estimates wrongly assume all males between 18-59 years old are combatants and calculate civilian death rates as high as 90%.

Regardless of the real proportion, which may never be known, two things are true: the vast majority of those being killed in Gaza are civilians, and, per the New York Times, “International officials and experts familiar with the way figures are compiled by health officials in Gaza say the overall numbers are generally reliable.” Still, early on in the conflict, contrary to expert opinion, President Biden stated he had “no confidence in the numbers that the Palestinians are using.” Such behavior is not out of line for Biden, who, for decades, has been a staunch supporter of Israel and has maintained a long-lasting—if shaky—relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu. During the Obama administration, for example, Biden repeatedly undercut the President’s efforts to effect changes in Israeli policy, such as by giving Netanyahu an unplanned “conciliatory call” after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had issued an ultimatum pressuring Israel on its West Bank settlement policies. When Netanyahu visited the White House weeks later, Biden reportedly told a member of his entourage: “Just remember, that I am your best f—ng friend here.”

Besides the obvious ethical concerns over Biden’s stances on Gaza, there are genuine political consequences to them. As Democratic voters become more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, Biden’s stances are increasingly unsuitable for a Democratic president. The aforementioned UMass Amherst poll found that 59% of Americans are dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Additionally, in a shocking turn of opinion from past American views on the conflict, exactly 50% of Americans—and two-thirds of Democrats—believe Israel is at least probably committing genocide in Gaza. Further, Democrats are split roughly into thirds between approving, neither approving nor disapproving, and disapproving of Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza; only a third approve of the provision of additional military aid to Israel as well. While the Democratic Party holds a broad spectrum of views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it is increasingly becoming clear that Biden is out of line.

Reason Three: Alternatives

A concern often raised among those who support Biden remaining in the race is that, for all of Biden’s faults, there simply aren’t any other options. This, however, couldn’t be further from the truth—in fact, the current pool of Democratic candidates is one of the best it’s ever been in years. 

Because Democrats performed quite well in numerous competitive races during the 2022 midterms, they have a slate of young, diverse elected officials who are battle-tested in swing states. These include Raphael Warnock, the 54-year-old Senator from Georgia, who outperformed Republican Governor Brian Kemp’s re-election margin by double digits in his own re-election bid two years ago; Gretchen Whitmer, the 52-year-old Governor of Michigan, who expanded her double-digit margin of victory during her re-election bid, outdoing Biden by seven points; and Andy Beshear, the 46-year-old Governor of Kentucky, who outdid Biden’s 2020 margin in Kentucky by over thirty points. 

These candidates, while having shown significant electoral prowess, lack the name recognition of other major political figures, and polling on their performance against Trump is sparse. More-spoken-of candidates include Michelle Obama (who has explicitly ruled out running), California Governor Gavin Newsom (who has made numerous efforts to get his name out for what looks to be a future presidential run, though there are few polling numbers), and Vice President Kamala Harris, who is, at the moment, the most likely candidate to win the nomination if Biden drops out. Seemingly contrary to this article’s argument, however, Harris tends to do worse than Biden in Presidential election polling (though higher-quality, nonpartisan polls tend to show a smaller difference in their performances). 

Reason Four: Lyndon B. Johnson 

A historical example might offer an example of why this doesn’t immediately rule out Harris—or any other alternative, for that matter: that of Lyndon B. Johnson. In 1968, Johnson was in a situation not too different from that of Biden: both faced low approval ratings (around 40% at the 4-year mark for both), both were dragged down by unpopular foreign policy decisions (Vietnam vs. Afghanistan and Gaza), and both faced a comeback campaign from a past election’s Republican nominee (Nixon vs. Trump).  

Suffering from a low approval rating and a humiliatingly narrow finish in the New Hampshire Primary, incumbent President Johnson decided to back out of the race on March 31st, 1868. After Johnson dropped out, the race became a hectic contest between Senator Eugene McCarthy, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and Vice President Hubert Humphrey. In August, after an extremely hectic and violent Democratic National Convention held in the wake of RFK’s assassination, Humphrey was nominated for president. While he trailed in the polls by well into the double digits in the aftermath of the Convention, Humphrey was able to gradually narrow the gap—to the point where the Nixon campaign covertly sabotaged peace talks with North Vietnam. When the results came in on Election Day, though Humphrey lost in the Electoral College, his popular vote total was almost tied with Nixon’s. Many observers noted that had the election been held a few days later—or if the Nixon campaign had not committed treason—Humphrey would have won. 

What Now?

Thankfully for Democrats, Biden is not in nearly as poor a situation as Johnson was at the end of his presidency. His approval rating, while incredibly low, has not quite reached the level Johnson’s did at the nadir of his presidency. And while it has many flaws, the Biden administration certainly also has accomplishments to look back upon—the Inflation Reduction Act, the Respect for Marriage Act, and a strong (if drawn-out) economic recovery from the pandemic. Still, polls show a roughly tied race—with a slight edge for Trump, and the stakes are simply too high for this to be acceptable.  

A second term for Donald Trump—more vengeful, erratic, and cynical than he ever was during his first term—would be one of the most destructive presidencies in American history. Trump, facing multiple indictments, the possibility of prison time, and a reputation tainted by January 6th, is at his weakest point in years, but he nonetheless remains competitive in polling against Biden. It is entirely plausible that Biden will regain ground and defeat Trump in the end. Still, one thing is important to remember: the last time the Democratic Party downplayed its presidential candidate’s flaws—only to be greeted with a Trump victory—was 2016. 

• Will Hickey